IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.0	#211
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#115
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#159

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#275

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.1%	11.2%	5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.5	14.4

.500 or above	44.5%	71.3%	41.1%
.500 or above in Conference	64.3%	79.3%	62.4%
Conference Champion	6.3%	12.0%	5.5%
Last Place in Conference	4.4%	1.7%	4.8%

First Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%
First Round	5.9%	10.8%	5.2%
Second Round	0.5%	1.5%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 11.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 7
Quad 3	2 - 4	3 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 5	14 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	76	@ Western Kentucky	L	69-82	11%
Nov 16, 2019	100	@ Tulsa	L	70-80	17%
Nov 20, 2019	124	@ Vanderbilt	L	69-78	21%
Nov 23, 2019	299	SE Louisiana	W	75-67	76%
Nov 25, 2019	323	South Carolina St.	W	82-72	82%
Dec 03, 2019	57	@ Arkansas	L	72-87	9%
Dec 07, 2019	155	North Florida	L	81-82	49%
Dec 12, 2019	46	@ West Virginia	L	71-87	8%
Dec 21, 2019	126	Duquesne	L	75-81	31%
Dec 22, 2019	332	Alabama St.	W	78-70	76%
Dec 30, 2019	62	@ Georgia	L	69-84	10%
Jan 02, 2020	294	Southeast Missouri St.	W	81-73	74%
Jan 04, 2020	258	Tennessee Martin	W	81-76	68%
Jan 09, 2020	310	@ Tennessee Tech	W	75-72	60%
Jan 11, 2020	216	@ Jacksonville St.	L	72-75	41%
Jan 16, 2020	294	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	78-76	56%
Jan 18, 2020	258	@ Tennessee Martin	L	78-79	49%
Jan 23, 2020	272	Tennessee St.	W	80-74	70%
Jan 25, 2020	80	Belmont	L	77-84	29%
Jan 30, 2020	324	SIU Edwardsville	W	83-73	81%
Feb 01, 2020	255	Eastern Illinois	W	78-73	67%
Feb 06, 2020	272	@ Tennessee St.	W	77-76	51%
Feb 08, 2020	80	@ Belmont	L	74-87	15%
Feb 13, 2020	119	Murray St.	L	75-78	39%
Feb 15, 2020	274	Eastern Kentucky	W	90-84	70%
Feb 20, 2020	324	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	80-76	64%
Feb 22, 2020	255	@ Eastern Illinois	L	75-76	47%
Feb 27, 2020	264	Morehead St.	W	78-72	68%
Feb 29, 2020	119	@ Murray St.	L	72-81	22%
Projected Record						14 - 15	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.5	0.8	0.1		6.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.7	3.6	3.3	1.5	0.2				10.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.7	3.4	4.9	3.5	1.0	0.1					13.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.7	3.6	5.5	2.8	0.6	0.0						13.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.6	3.4	4.8	2.3	0.4	0.0							11.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.9	4.6	2.1	0.3	0.0								10.3	6th
7th							0.2	2.1	4.7	2.0	0.2	0.0									9.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.6	3.9	1.9	0.2	0.0										7.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.0	2.7	2.1	0.3	0.0											6.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.8	2.0	1.6	0.3	0.0												4.9	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.1	0.3	0.0													4.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0														2.3	12th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.8	2.9	4.4	6.5	8.7	10.4	11.0	11.4	11.9	10.0	8.3	5.8	3.3	1.7	0.8	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.7	0.1
16-2	87.3%	1.5		1.1	0.4	0.0
15-3	51.9%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	25.3%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0
13-5	7.3%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.3%	6.3		3.6	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		63.5%	52.5%	11.0%	11.2					0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		23.2%
17-1	0.8%		53.7%	52.3%	1.4%	12.5							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.4		3.0%
16-2	1.7%		33.4%	32.4%	1.0%	13.2									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1		1.5%
15-3	3.3%		32.0%	32.0%	0.0%	13.8												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	2.3		0.0%
14-4	5.8%		22.0%	22.0%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	4.5
13-5	8.3%		14.2%	14.2%		14.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	7.2
12-6	10.0%		6.3%	6.3%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	9.3
11-7	11.9%		3.5%	3.5%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	11.4
10-8	11.4%		2.4%	2.4%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	11.2
9-9	11.0%		1.1%	1.1%		15.8													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	10.9
8-10	10.4%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7																0.0	0.0	10.4
7-11	8.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
6-12	6.5%																							6.5
5-13	4.4%																							4.4
4-14	2.9%																							2.9
3-15	1.8%																							1.8
2-16	0.7%																							0.7
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		6.1%	6.0%	0.0%	14.2					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	93.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%